Dota 2 players are shocked by the catastrophically low drop chance of the new Pudge skin

Players have calculated the real drop chances for the new Aberrant Observer set for Pudge from the Collector's Cache 2024 and were shocked to find that even buying 100 caches doesn't guarantee obtaining the coveted reward.

A trending topic on Reddit, according to published calculations, reveals that it takes about 43 caches to have a 50% chance of getting the set. It's almost guaranteed that the Aberrant Observer will drop only after purchasing over a hundred caches.

Drop chances for Aberrant Observer:

• Chance from 1 cache — 0.001%

• Chance from 2 caches — 0.005%

• Chance from 3 caches — 0.016%

• Chance from 4 caches — 0.041%

• Chance from 5 caches — 0.1%

• Chance from 6 caches — 0.2%

• Chance from 7 caches — 0.2%

• Chance from 8 caches — 0.4%

• Chance from 9 caches — 0.5%

• Chance from 10 caches — 0.8%

• Chance from 20 caches — 6.4%

• Chance from 50 caches — 65.4%

• Chance from 75 caches — 92.4%

• Chance from 100 caches — 98.3%

Players are shocked that even buying 10 caches doesn't reach a 1% chance of dropping the set. For more realistic chances, around 43 caches are needed, which costs approximately $118.

Recall that Dota 2 recently introduced a new cache featuring the highly desired Aberrant Observer set for Pudge.