Dota 2 Betting Tips: Maximizing Your Winning Potential

Introduction to Dota 2 Betting

The number of those who love Dota 2, one of the most popular games in the world played online, continues to increase by the day. Like any other game, Dota 2 can be a profitable source for anyone who knows how to place bets correctly.

In this article we will see some strategies and analytical approaches that will help you in increasing your chances of winning while betting on Dota2. This article is about learning how to analyse data, assess probabilities and improve chances of success.

Research Teams and Players

Picks

First, pay attention to team picks. If you follow the pro scene, you have an idea of what meta heroes are like. Meta heroes are more powerful than others in current patch, so it’s much easier playing with them. In order to make more successful bet ones should know well current meta of the patch which heroes have been picked more often and won more frequently in previous professional matches; yet it is not enough just to know which heroes are strong but also one has to possess profound knowledge concerning counter-picking as well.

Counter-pick is a hero who has higher percentage of wins over selected hero. This is something important if you realize that even though it’s a meta hero it’ll be extremely tough for carry against opponent’s pick. Consider: Lina was the most meta carry at Lima Major with a 61 percent win rate having been picked into 54 matches and winning only 31 times.If you look at her numbers overall she had unbelievable win rate yet negative against all heroes with BKB-control spells such as Batrider or Treant Protector.Such carries as TA or PA that quickly closed distance were also problematic.Besides various programs which calculate probability of winning or losing for both teams without going into details about all picks there exist many such programs.Yet personal analysis and experience gives bigger probability of winning.

Players

Source: stratz

Player Heroes

Another important factor is the number of games a professional player has played recently and their win rate on the hero they currently play; the higher the probability of their team winning. This simple truth has cost a huge number of lost bets. The player is more likely to make the right decisions in different situations on the hero they play most often and feel more confident. To win in the current Dota, you need to be able to play meta heroes and play them well. It's no longer possible to surprise with your signature hero or win alone; players who can't adapt to the meta are more likely to lose games.

Build

In current Dota, good builds usually win games. This goes not only for the build of each player but also for the team as a whole. If they strive to win, teams must put correct items on their heroes. For instance, an offlaner or support should concentrate on Greaves or Wraith Pack assembly. These things make the team incredibly strong. Some indicators that can enable you to know whether the team and players understand what to build are:

1. Hero Role: Each hero in Dota 2 has a role he/she performs in the game and thus your build should align with this role so that it helps him/her with his/her tasks in that particular game. For example, carry is most often obliged to pick BKB while 3rd position needs to think about utility items or survivability choices.

1. Team Strategy: The picked heroes have to be consistent with your overall strategy for the match. Thus, if your group plays one-core carry lanes, then supports should collect saving items; if there is an emphasis on pushing – auras and so on. A single-player who tries to play differently from what other members of his/her team are doing can result in lowered chances of winning such a game.

2. Enemy items: Your build must take into account the items your opponent has. For example, if your opponent's main damage is magical, the offlaner should assemble a Pipe and the carry should get a BKB.

3. Order Of Artifacts : Every item has its value and influence on gameplay, therefore determining how quickly you can strengthen up your hero and conquer the map may depend on which artifacts you purchased first.Forgetting about bkb/ farming artifact at right time gives initiative back to enemy ,and even at high level cost you d game.

Source: dotabuff

Dota 2 is undoubtedly a game where many things vary, and the assembly requires adjustment for each particular case. However, as can be seen from the experience of previous TI winners, in most cases discipline and classic builds are more effective. Therefore, if a team fails to purchase BKBs on their carry or a position 3 player decides to get slots after a won lane instead of buying utility item, such a team is likely to lose.

Player Form

If you have any information about a player’s form, injuries or previous match results, don't hesitate to use this information for analysis as it will significantly increase your chances of winning. Player’s KDA, damage per structure and damage to heroes is the easiest way of analyzing their form throughout the tournament. These are statistics that can help you in advance and during the tournament. If you see a player or a team in an amazing form and having stable performance in Dota 1 then this is where you should place your bets. Of course, these teams will always be favorites with low odds but there is one trick: if the favorite team loses and the outsider wins then it will always be better to bet on the favorite especially if the odds are over 2. Mostly because of experience and dedication, a stronger team will come back from a bad spot more often than not while weaker one still makes many mistakes even after they already get advantage.

Researching teams and players, analyzing their performances and game strategies, helps you better understand capabilities and weak points of your team. This allows making more informed decisions thus increasing your betting success on Dota 2 games. However, that's only the start; next step is calculating what odds mean and when bookmakers offer good odds.

How do betting odds work

Odds in sports betting are numerical values which define probability of certain outcome in sporting event. It also defines how much money player can get by placing a bet on particular outcome event.

Odds are set by bookmaker companies based on several factors such as past games statistics, teams’ forms, composition as well as other factors which might affect game’s ending. The higher odds means lower chances for this very result to happen at all while payout amount would be larger if it actually does take place.

How to read betting odds

Betting odds are important numbers that guide wagers placed on various events like sports or esports including Dota 2. They represent the likelihood of an event occurring and they are used by bookmakers to calculate potential winnings. In order to properly read odds, it is important to understand different types of odds and how these are calculated. Below we will provide examples of calculation for the most popular formats.

Decimal Odds: A number with a decimal point that determines the probability and size of the possible winnings.

Example: If the odds are 2.50, then a bet of $100 could result in a possible win of $250.

American Odds: A positive or negative number that determines the possible profit or loss for a bet of $100.

Example: If the odds are +200, then in order to win $100, you must bet $50. At the same time, a profit of $200 is possible.

Fractional Odds: A fraction that determines the probability and amount of possible winnings.

Example: If the odds are 3/1, then a $100 bet has a possible win of $300.

Indonesian (Malay) Odds: The Malaysian coefficient is similar to the American coefficient, but it has some differences in values. A negative coefficient indicates that the net profit will exceed the size of the bet. A positive coefficient means that the net winnings will be lower than the sum of the bet.

Example: coefficient of (-0.7) means that with a bet of 0.7 units, the net profit will be 1.4 units. A positive Malaysian coefficient (+0.5) indicates that with a bet of one unit, the net winnings will be 0.5 units.

Each type of odds is used in sports betting to determine the probability and amount of possible winnings when bets are made. It is important for players to understand the difference between the types of odds and choose the one that is best for them.

Where do bookmakers get odds from?

Bookmakers apply mathematical models or formulas to calculate possible event results’ probabilities; they may also take into account other factors like teams’ current performance history, players’ conditions, weather conditions etc., using different algorithms such as linear regression models, neural networks and machine learning models.

Setting odds on your own. When a bookmaker sets prices for themselves, They use their experience and skills to evaluate information and possibilities on outcome probability which they forward odd prices about based on this factor they attempt to make sure all bets are fairly shared out between opposing outcomes so that they can take commission at any rate.The people who come up with odds for betting are called live traders as these set odd prices depending on their expertise in different kinds of games as well as additional knowledge about individual players or teams.

Using odds providers. Most bookmakers work with odds providers who supply them with ready-made coefficients for different sporting events.Odds providers usually have access to more data sources and can use more advanced algorithms while assessing betting rates making these figures available to players thus creating more accurate and relevant information simultaneously this may reduce uniqueness of betting rates since other companies offer same ones too.

When using an odds provider, a bookmaker may encounter some risks that can lead to errors in evaluating the situation and, as a result, undesirable consequences.

Firstly, relying on a betting provider means the betting company loses oversight over the process of creating odds for betting thus resulting in having odds that do not coincide with actual probabilities. For example, a specific team or player’s abilities might be underrated by the supplier leading to inflated prizes in their favour

Secondly, the provider may be manipulated by other participants in the betting market. For instance, competitive bookmakers would apply different methods to influence this particular provider so as they differ from others. This might bring about unbalanced bets and worsen the situation of a bookie.

Finally, various strategies used by providers while balancing their lines can result in wrong assessments. For instance maximum bet will be excessively increased to balance out the line. All these factors help players find gaps in the system and develop winning strategies.

The ultimate goal of the bookmaker is to set odds that will allow them to balance bets and earn a commission, taking into account all the factors affecting the outcome of the event.

How to know if the odds are good?

Above, we have analyzed the factors that influence good odds. Now we need to find out when the odds are unreasonably high and how to catch unreasonably high odds. There are several effective methods for this:

Difference in odds 

The differences in odds at different bookmakers' offices may be significant. This happens because each bookmaker's office uses its own mathematical models, expert opinions, and analytical data to calculate the odds. The differences may also be due to competition between bookmakers and changes in the market situation. So the odds for the same outcome might be different at different betting shops, for example, 1.4 for one betting shop and 1.5 for another. By comparing these ratios, you can choose the one you prefer and bet on it, allowing you to increase your winnings.

Low and High odds

If you see an underdog team with a 20K edge in the table and low odds of 1.1 - 1.3, you should think twice before betting on it. But this value does not take into account the bookmaker's margin, which significantly increases the real odds. As a result, the real chance of winning will be about 20% lower than that specified in the odds, plus the bookie's margin. That is, when you bet on odds of 1.3, the real odds may be around 1.5-1.6.

At an average distance, such a difference in odds can significantly affect success. In addition, due to the fact that the bookmaker loads the line, they may equalize the odds, which leads to a disadvantage for the player.

Therefore, if the odds on your opponent seem unrealistically low, it may be the first indication that the bet is not worth the risk. But in order to draw the right conclusion, you need to consider all factors, including the bookie's margin and changes in the line.

As for high odds, you don't have to bet big money on it. If you can save money with a "Fork" strategy, it is always better to stick to it. Remember, emotions are your enemy; a clear strategy and a cool head will help you to stay in the black.

Betting on the distance

Over time, many of those who bet develop certain patterns, algorithms, and strategies for themselves to bet on. By sticking to these strategies and patterns, they can determine which pick or team will win and calculate the probability based on experience. For example, if you have certain favorites and they win 8 games out of 10, the probability of their next victory is extremely high. If in that case, the coefficient ranges from 1.6 or higher, you should bet on that outcome, and every time. So at a distance, even losing 2 outcomes, the other 8 will go to your fund, and you will find yourself in the black. It is important to correctly calculate the probability and assess the risks in this strategy. If you are very confident in this strategy, and you see that in a given situation, your team wins 9 out of 10 games, it is worth betting on it, even if the odds are low, and the most important thing is to keep going with it even after losing, as long as the other 9 outcomes work out.

How to manage you bankroll in esports betting?

Allocating the pot in your betting is essential to minimize your risks and increase your chances of winning. Here are some tips for spreading the pot in Dota 2 betting:

● Determine the size of the pot: Before you start betting, determine the size of the pot, i.e., the amount you are willing to spend on bets. This will help avoid overspending and allow you to manage your risk.

● Use a fixed-bet strategy: One of the most common strategies is the fixed-bet strategy, in which the bet size remains unchanged. This helps manage risk and prevents you from losing large sums.

● Use Betting Systems: Betting systems allow players to manage their risk and can be more effective than just betting on whether they win or lose. Some of the most popular betting systems include the "flat bet" system and the "martingale" system.

● Don't bet all on one card: Spread your bets over several cards to reduce risk and increase the likelihood of winning. Don't bet everything on one card and use a risk-sharing strategy.

Betting Strategies

In this case, a "strategy" is not complex calculations and formulas, but a set of principles that other players have formulated based on their experience. They do not guarantee success, but they allow you to reduce risks or increase profits. Here are the main ones:

1. Martingale 2. Flat 3. Ladder; 4. Fork(hedging); 5. Express; 6. Value;  7. Sure bet.

Valuation (value) - a situation in which the odds on the likely outcome is overestimated. In this case, the player gets an advantage over the bookmaker, who could not or did not have time to fully evaluate the outcome of the meeting. This does not guarantee you a win, but if the outcome is more likely, it will bring you more money. Here we should add an example where you noticed something that is about to change the situation. Since there are so many different factors that can affect the outcome, it's almost impossible to account for them all, for example, a carry bought a bkb and is ready to fight the team. Or heroes like Naga Siren, who can't get a foothold on the first line of the networx despite the team's advantage. All of these signs are impossible to calculate with an algorithm, and that's the advantage of using this strategy. Valuation is your knowledge, experience and understanding of the game, the better you are at it, the greater the probability of success. Moreover, this strategy has a cumulative effect and works well over a distance.

Fork(hedging) is a bet on the opposite team or the outcome of an event, in order to guarantee yourself a profit or not to go into deficit. It is mainly used in different betting shops because it is not allowed everywhere. Fork is used if the user is not sure of the outcome of the meeting. The situation can turn over several times, and there can be many reasons for this. In such cases, bettors fork.

Example of using a fork: A player places a bet on team A winning on site 1 with odds 2.0, and a bet on team B winning on site 2 with odds 2.2. If team A wins, the player receives a $20 payout on site 1, and if team B wins, the player receives a $22 payout on site 2. The best betting strategy for a Property Shake is to take a high odds bet, and if your team wins and the odds of the opponent are 2 or higher, you can bet on him. That way you end up in a situation where you forfeit the risk and you end up with either a big or small win.

Ladder is one of the betting strategies that many gamblers use in their business. The essence of this strategy is that when a player loses, the bet size increases to cover the losses, and when he wins, the player starts betting again from the minimum bet.

For example, a player starts with a $10 bet. If he loses, he increases the next bet to $20, and so on. If he wins, he starts again with the minimum bet of $10.

This betting approach can only be used by the most experienced players who have a steady source of income. This is due to the fact that wins in this strategy are rarely achieved and it takes a lot of investment to achieve a big win. In addition, the most dangerous point is the need to know when to stop and withdraw money in order to fix it in a secure asset, such as real estate. If you don't have a large enough amount of money and experience, it's worth using more conservative strategies. 

Flat is a betting strategy in which the size of the bet remains the same regardless of whether the player wins or loses. This strategy can be useful for players who want to save their bankroll and reduce their betting risks.

Example of using a flat: A player starts with a $10 bet. If he loses, he continues to bet $10. If he wins, he continues to bet $10. This strategy helps the player conserve his bankroll and reduce risk.

The flat strategy is the most common and reliable betting strategy. Its simple and strict rules reduce the influence of circumstantial factors on decision making, making it suitable for beginners and experienced players alike. 

Express bet, also known as an accumulator or parlay bet, is a type of betting strategy that involves combining multiple individual bets (called legs) into a single wager. The odds for each leg are multiplied together to determine the total odds for the express bet. To win the bet, all selections within the express bet must be successful. If any leg of the bet loses, the entire express bet is lost. The appeal of this strategy lies in the potential for higher returns due to the multiplied odds. However, the risk is also greater as the probability of winning decreases with each added leg.

Here are some examples of express bets in the context of Dota 2 betting:

Example : Match Winner Express Bet

In this example, you decide to place an express bet on three separate Dota 2 matches:

Team A vs Team B - Team A to win at odds of 1.5 Team C vs Team D - Team C to win at odds of 1.7 Team E vs Team F - Team E to win at odds of 1.8

To calculate the total odds for this express bet, multiply the individual odds together: 1.5 x 1.7 x 1.8 = 4.59. If all three of your selections win, your bet will pay out at these combined odds. However, if any of the matches result in a loss, the entire express bet is lost.

Surebet is a betting strategy in which a player bets on the outcome of an event that he thinks is most likely to happen. This strategy is based on an analysis of statistics, past results and other factors that may affect the outcome of an event.

An example of the use of the surebet strategy : The player bets on the victory of team A, based on the analysis of their recent performances, team composition and other factors that may affect the outcome of the match.

Martingale is a betting strategy in which a player bets on the outcome of an event that he considers most likely to happen. If the player loses, he doubles his bet on the next bet to cover the loss. As soon as the player wins, he starts betting again with the minimum bet.

Example:

Let's say you want to use the Martingale strategy while betting on Dota 2 match winners. You start with an initial bet of $10. The following outcomes occur:

Bet $10 and lose -> Total loss: $10 Bet $20 (double the previous bet) and lose -> Total loss: $30 Bet $40 (double the previous bet) and lose -> Total loss: $70 Bet $80 (double the previous bet) and win -> Total win: $80

In this example, after winning the fourth bet, you recover all previous losses ($70) and make a profit of $10, equal to your initial bet.

This strategy carries huge risks so it is rarely used. Many people mistakenly confuse this strategy with a fishing line. In the fishing line, you bet small amounts and up to a certain amount. In catch-up you need to have large sums to steadily earn small amounts, but there is always a risk of losing everything.

How Much to Bet?

In order to choose a strategy and decide on the amounts, it is important for you to understand your current level of knowledge in the field, your experience in betting, and your results. If you are an experienced bettor, then the strategy of dividing the bank into five deposits will work for you. Next, divide each deposit into five shares and bet using a flat strategy.

For less experienced bettors and those who are less risk-prone, a standard strategy of splitting the bank into many shares will work. Usually, it is recommended not to bet more than 5% of the bank on one outcome. However, for better results, you can use the percentage strategy, in which the bet size is defined as a percentage of the total bank. For example, if your bank is $1,000 and you decide to bet 3% of the bank on each bet, your bet would be $30.

To make the strategy above work, you need to understand your actual bank and, depending on the amount and desired result, choose the best strategy for yourself. Take risks, but remember that the higher the risk, the higher the potential return, yet also the lower the likelihood of success. It is important to find a balance and systematize your progress on the way to achieving it, as it will be a win-win strategy.

Conclusion

In conclusion, betting on Dota 2 is a complex but fascinating world that requires players to know not only the game itself but also the basic concepts and betting strategies. By following the tips and strategies described above, you can significantly improve your Dota 2 betting strategy and increase your chances of success. Don't forget to do your research, analyze the data, and use the best bankroll management practices. Remember that Dota 2 betting is a risky pastime, but with the right strategy and approach, you can increase your winnings and enjoy the game even more.